The Last Mortgage Warning? Why Locking in Now Might Be Your Best Move Yet
Something big just happened—and if you blinked, you might’ve missed it.
No, it’s not another TikTok algorithm change. We’re talking mortgage rates.
Five-year fixed mortgage rates in Canada have quietly dipped to their lowest levels in over two and a half years. We’re now seeing rates starting with a “3”—and not just for ultra-elite unicorn borrowers with a 900 credit score and a gold-plated down payment. According to industry experts and current data from Ratehub, high-ratio five-year fixed mortgages are as low as 3.74%, with conventional fixed options commonly hovering around 3.89% to 4.09%.
For context, 18 months ago we were all making peace with fives and sixes like they were a part of the family. Now? Threes are back. And they’re not just pretty—they’re strategic.
A Quick Recap on What’s Changed
Mortgage strategist Ron Butler (a.k.a. the guy who’s been yelling “variable until it hits the threes!” for the past 16 months) is now waving a new flag: lock in your rate. Not forever. Just five years. And only if you’re not planning to move soon.
Because while yes, variable rates may drop a bit more—especially if the economy hits a rough patch—when inflation inevitably resurfaces (spoiler alert: it always does), the Bank of Canada will raise rates again. By then?
It’s too late.
Fixed rates will already be heading north, and your chance to lock in under 4% will vanish faster than that guy who said he’d help you move but “pulled something” the night before.
The Trade War Wildcard
Here’s the wrinkle: the U.S. just lit the fuse on another trade war, which is not only inflationary (translation: price hikes on everyday stuff), but also a wild card for the Bank of Canada. Sure, rates may dip as the economy struggles, but inflation will almost certainly claw its way back, forcing central banks to tighten up once more.
Historically, by the time the Bank of Canada raises its overnight rate, fixed mortgage rates have already done their damage. So waiting for a rock-bottom variable might mean you miss the fixed-rate boat entirely.
Ron’s Advice (a.k.a. Your Mortgage Playbook)
Here’s the play, straight from the coach:
If you’re in a variable rate right now, go to your lender and ask what it would cost to convert to a five-year fixed.
If you’re offered a rate above 4%, politely (but firmly) threaten to leave. There are rates below 4% with other major banks.
If they don’t budge, explore refinancing—even if there’s a penalty. Most penalties on variables are just three months’ interest (a manageable tradeoff when rates are dropping).
Don’t bother with two- or three-year fixed terms unless you’re absolutely sure you’re moving in under 24 months. The five-year is your best defensive play right now.
If you’re buying right now, aim for fixed over variable—especially if this is your long-term home.
This isn’t about trying to time the market perfectly (that’s for day traders and people who buy crypto based on moon phases). It’s about creating certainty in an uncertain world—and locking in sub-4% for five years might be the best financial sleep aid money can buy.
Final Thought: This Is a Window, Not a Doorway
Opportunities like this don’t hang around forever. If inflation flares back up (thanks, tariffs), the rates will rise before your barista can say “extra hot oat milk matcha latte.”
So here’s your move:
Homeowners: Call your lender. Ask for a five-year fixed quote. If it’s over 4%, shop around. Negotiate. Refinance if needed.
Buyers: Talk to your mortgage broker now. Get pre-approved at today’s rates. Time might not be on your side much longer.
We’re not saying this is the “last warning” (though Ron kind of is). We’re just saying… history doesn’t usually knock twice.
Secure the rate. Secure your future. And if you’re unsure where to start, we’ve got the team, the contacts, and the calculators ready. Let’s make your next move the right one.