July is usually the quiet stretch of the real estate calendar — the month when everyone who was going to make a move before Labour Day has already made it. But this July had something worth paying attention to, and it wasn’t the price line.
It was the listings.
Across the Greater Toronto Area, 5,995 homes changed hands last month — essentially flat against July 2025, down less than one per cent. New listings, meanwhile, fell off a cliff: 14,484 properties came to market, down 17.8 per cent year-over-year. Active inventory finished the month at 26,098, down 12.1 per cent.
That combination — steady demand, shrinking supply — is how a market quietly stops loosening. The average GTA selling price came in at $1,003,956, down 4.5 per cent from a year ago, and the MLS Home Price Index benchmark was off 4.6 per cent. Those are still declines. But they are declines built on a supply picture that looks materially different than it did in the spring.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld put it plainly: “With sales accounting for a larger share of listings, buyers may find there is less room to negotiate moving forward. If current trends continue, home prices could start to level off compared to last year.”
Here’s how that played out closer to home.
City of Toronto: the 416 held its ground
The city recorded 2,242 sales in July at an average price of $1,010,836, with a median of $800,000. Homes sold at 97 per cent of asking on average, and spent 32 days on market — up modestly from a year ago, but not dramatically.
The story inside the city is really two stories, and they belong to different buyers.
Low-rise held firm. Detached homes averaged $1,547,928 across 691 sales, moving in 29 days. Semi-detached did better still — 233 sales, an average of $1,122,326, and a sale-to-list ratio of 101 per cent, meaning the typical semi went for more than asking. Twenty-four days on market. If you have been reading headlines about a soft market and wondering why the semi down the street sold in a weekend with competing offers, that number is your answer. Toronto East was the standout, with an overall sale-to-list ratio of 101 per cent and just 27 days on market.
Condos are still the buyer’s opportunity. The city logged 1,054 condo apartment sales at an average of $672,807 (median $561,500), with 5,228 units sitting active at month-end and an average of 37 days on market. The MLS HPI apartment benchmark for Toronto is $551,900, down 7.09 per cent year-over-year — the steepest decline of any segment in the city.
For a first-time buyer or an investor with a long horizon, that is the most negotiating room the Toronto condo market has offered in years. For a condo seller, it means pricing has to be honest from day one; the market is not going to chase you.
Oakville: strong prices, patient market
Oakville posted 248 sales in July at an average price of $1,412,619 and a median of $1,182,500 — comfortably the highest average in Halton Region, which came in at $1,151,595 overall.
Detached homes carried the market, as they usually do here: 136 sales at an average of $1,903,938, with a median of $1,612,500. Townhomes were the quickest movers in town, averaging $1,057,478 and selling in 25 days at 97 per cent of list.
The number worth watching in Oakville is time, not price. The average listing took 38 days to sell, and 59 days when you count the full property listing history. Inventory sat at five months’ supply against 1,105 active listings, with 575 new listings added in July. Sellers averaged 96 per cent of asking.
That is a market with real value and real patience required. Oakville buyers have choice — 580 active detached listings alone — and they are using it. The MLS HPI composite benchmark for Oakville is $1,152,300, down 3.9 per cent year-over-year, with detached at $1,611,500 (down 4.24 per cent) and apartments at $562,800 (down 7.4 per cent).
What this means if you’re making a move
If you’re buying, the window where you can take your time and negotiate is still open — but it is narrower than it was in the spring, and it is narrowing fastest in the low-rise segments. Toronto semis selling above asking in 24 days is not a buyer’s market. Toronto condos and Oakville detached homes still are. Know which market you are actually shopping in.
If you’re selling, price to the market you have, not the one you remember. Homes priced correctly are still moving in roughly a month. Homes priced to 2022 are the ones sitting for 59 days and then reducing anyway. The shrinking supply of new listings is genuinely in your favour this fall — there is less competition on the shelf than there was a year ago.
The broader backdrop is helping too. The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate held at 2.3 per cent in July, prime sits at 4.5 per cent, and inflation came in at 2.8 per cent. As TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted, “recent news has been more positive than expected. The latest readings on economic growth and jobs surprised to the upside. This could help bolster consumer confidence and prompt an uptick in home purchases in the months ahead.”
Thinking about a move in Toronto or Oakville this fall? Let’s look at your specific neighbourhood and price band — the averages above are a starting point, not an answer.