Every week I get some version of the same question. From a buyer: is now the time? From a seller: should I just wait it out? From a parent helping their kid buy their first place: are condos a terrible idea right now?
So let me just lay out where the GTA condo market actually sits this week, and what I’m telling the people I work with.
The short version is that prices are still falling, the investor crowd has basically left the building, and yet the long-term setup is starting to look more interesting than it has in years. All three of those things are true at the same time, which is why the headlines feel so contradictory.
Here are the numbers. The average GTA condo sold for $636,000 in April, down 6.3% from a year ago. The benchmark index, which is a cleaner measure than the average, was down about 10% year-over-year in Q1. The Bank of Canada used the words “small condo glut” in its April Monetary Policy Report, which is the kind of phrase central banks don’t throw around casually. Rental vacancy on newer purpose-built buildings hit 5.4%, the highest level since the pandemic shutdowns. And Daniels Corp told a reporter recently that “the investor-buyer has completely fled the market,” which lines up with what I’m seeing on the ground: the assignment listings, the desperate pre-construction holders, the units that show up furnished because the owner gave up on renting it out.
That’s the bad news, and there’s no point sugarcoating it.
But here’s what doesn’t get talked about enough. In Q1, not a single new condo project launched in the GTA. That hasn’t happened in more than thirty years. Developers can’t make the math work at today’s prices, so they’re not breaking ground. Which means the pipeline that would normally feed buildings into the market in 2028, 2029, 2030 is essentially empty. At the same time, the city isn’t getting smaller. People still need somewhere to live. So whatever oversupply we have today gets absorbed, and then we hit a wall.
I’m not telling you that to scare you into buying. I genuinely hate that kind of sales pitch and won’t make it. But if you’re a buyer who can comfortably carry a unit for five-plus years, the gap between what you’d pay today and what you’d pay in 2028 is starting to look meaningful. The market is giving you the discount now that it usually takes a recession to deliver.
The catch is that not all condos are getting cheaper for the same reason, and not all of them will recover at the same pace. The pain has been concentrated in studios and small one-bedrooms downtown, the kind of unit that was built for investors to rent to international students. Both sides of that equation broke at the same time (rents fell, student numbers dropped), so those units have nowhere to go. If you’re looking at one of those, look very carefully. The “deal” might be a building full of distressed sellers, high vacancy, and rising fees for years.
Two-bedrooms with parking are a completely different story. They’re moving. End-users want them, they don’t depend on the investor model, and supply was never as bloated. If you’re a first-time buyer who would normally be priced out of those, this is the window where the math is unusually friendly.
For sellers (and I have a lot of you in my inbox right now), the honest read is this. The market is not going to reward you for waiting another six months. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t, but the data doesn’t support sitting tight. What it will reward you for is pricing properly and presenting well. The listings I’m watching that sell in two or three weeks are the ones priced into the actual comps from the last sixty days, staged thoughtfully, and photographed properly. The ones priced where you wish the market was sit for ninety days and eventually sell for less than the first group would have. I’ve seen that pattern repeat a dozen times this spring.
If you’re selling to upsize into a house, the news is better than it sounds. Yes, you’ll get less for your condo than you would have a year ago. But detached prices are down too, and the dollar discount on the more expensive property is bigger than the one you’re absorbing on yours. The trade is more favourable than the headlines make it feel.
The Bank of Canada held the rate at 2.25% in April and isn’t moving again until June 10 at the earliest, so the financing backdrop is stable for the next few weeks. That stability matters. It’s actually the first time in a long time that buyers can run their numbers without the rate environment shifting under them mid-search.
If you want me to look at a specific building, a specific unit, or your own place if you’re thinking about listing, that’s literally what I do. Just reply and we’ll have a look.